China's economic transition "Mr Ken paradox". 1998-2011 years, China's economy has shown high economic growth, high town unemployment occurring together "Mr Ken paradox". In this year of work report, wen jiabao, the prime minister's GDP growth for the first time will drop to 7.5% unemployment rate rise to 4.6%, town. We believe, in annual GDP growth is slowing in the backdrop, "Mr Ken paradox" may further highlight, "the employment pressure" will be largely dominated in 2012 to the policy.

The second industry, is still LiGang "employment" beam. Our estimates show that its source in Chinese current urban and rural split "dual economic structure, in 2032, before the first industry is facing labor net output pressure; While incarcerated at present the third industry scale somewhat low, the output value of the present situation of the small, we think, in 2012 and even more long a period of time, our country still will be investing heavily in the second industry primarily, by improving the output value of the secondary industry to transfer, ease the pressure for employment.

Mechanical equipment manufacturing rise. We calculate discovery, the second industry, the efficiency is highest is mechanical equipment manufacturing industry. We think, no matter from relieve employment pressure, or from the adjustment of industrial structure look, in 2012, mechanical equipment manufacturing industries are expected to rise. In addition, we prefer high investment efficiency of oil, gas and coal tar processing, and the electric power, heat power and water production, supply industry; At the same time, long term value investment efficiency in the fourth row, five food, wood products manufacturing.

"New period" however, left to buy. At last, from the evolution of the economic cycle, see, 1990-in 2011, two wheels during the financial crisis, our country has gone through the more obvious, with light manufacturing rapid development for the industrial characteristics (1990-1999) "ZhuGe pull" to the real estate cycle, with heavy industry, for the industrial characteristics (2000-2009) "ZhuGe pull" cycle. Therefore, from a 10 years or so, the evolution process ZhuGe cycle look, we think, in 2012 China economy is into a new round to equipment manufacturing industry upgrading drive "of high machining, technology intensive" cyclical industry, the scale of the equipment investment horizon is open